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COMAC releases Market Forecast Report (2021-2040)

Chinese market to receive 9,084 passenger aircraft over next 20 years

Last Updated (Beijing Time):2020-09-30   Source:News Center of COMAC
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During the 13th China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition held on September 28th, 2021, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd. (COMAC) released COMAC Market Forecast Report (2021-2040) (hereafter referred to as the "Report"), and made analysis and forecast on the commercial aircraft market in China and the world over the next 20 years. Mr. Wu Yongliang, Member of Standing Committee of the Party Committee, Vice President and CFO of COMAC, attended the release and made a speech. Mr. Zhang Yanzhong, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and Mdm Ren Hong, First-Level Inspector of the Basic Industries Department of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), attended the release.

This is the 12th consecutive year that COMAC has released a Market Forecast Report, and this Report is a scientific forecast of global and regional aviation demand growth and fleet changes over the next 20 years made by COMAC based on the analysis of air transport related influence factors, the modeling and understanding of the aviation industry, as well as the judgment of the impact of recent global pandemic and the long-term development trends. In this COMAC Market Forecast Report, Chinese market is stated in a separate chapter, and a comprehensive analysis of the history and current situation of the aviation market in China is made.

Mr. Wu Yongliang expressed that the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and we would face a more complex and volatile external environment. In the future, the global aviation industry would still be challenged by international political and economic situation, aviation regulation and safety, traveling habits of passengers, sustainable development of aviation industry and operation modes of airlines. As a manufacturer, we had been paying close attention to the dynamic changes of the global aviation market for a long time, and had a deepening understanding of the global and Chinese markets. COMAC was willing to share our views and research achievements with the industry.

Despite the huge impact of COVID-19 on the global civil aviation industry, pent up passenger demand in the global aviation market will gradually recover in the long run. It is expected that the domestic markets in US and China will recover first, followed by the regional markets such as in Europe, and finally the long-range international markets.

The Report forecasts that the global aviation market will return to its pre-pandemic status by 2023, and global Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) will increase at an average annual rate of 3.9% in the next 20 years and reach 19.1 trillion by 2040.

The Report points out that based on the global economy maintaining an average annual growth rate of about 2.6% through 2040, more than 41,429 new aircraft valued about $6.1 trillion (based on the list price of the aircraft in 2020) are expected to be delivered globally in the next 20 years to replace retired aircraft and support the development of fleets. It is expected that by 2040, the number of aircraft in global passenger aircraft fleets will reach 45,397.

The Report also forecasts that based on the average annual growth rate of China's GDP, it is estimated that the average annual growth rate of RPK is 5.7%, and the average annual growth rate of fleet is 5.2%. Over the next 20 years, China's aviation market will receive 9,084 passenger aircraft with more than 50 seats, with a value of about $1.4 trillion (based on the list price of the aircraft in 2020). Among which, 953 turbofan regional jets with more than 50 seats, 6,295 single-aisle jets with more than 120 seats, and 1,836 dual-aisle jets with more than 250 seats will be received. By 2040, number of aircraft in Chinese aircraft fleets will increase to 9,957 aircraft, and its share in global aircraft fleets will increase to 22%, becoming the largest single aviation market in the world.

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